TVI Express supporters in Namibia are in serious denial

As explained earlier in 5-stages of grief about "TVI Express is a scam", the first stage of any sort of loss is immediate denial, and nation of Namibia is no exception after its national bank declared TVI Express (and Holiday and Cash, a similar operation) to be pyramid schemes.




The messages of denial are flooding the newspapers that carried the story. Some examples can be found online, and they inevitably has the same themes:

1) It's not a scam because it paid me 
2) It's not a scam because you just don't understand it/us
3) It's not a scam. You just want to keep us poor.



These are just some of the 13 tricks identified earlier




All are "deny the allegations"
1) is "presenting personal testimony as fact" (when it's not)
2) is "you don't understand us"
3) is "attack the critic", blame it on a "conspiracy"



Actually, what's really sad is that one of those replies was "It can't be a scam. I need the money to put my kids through school."

That is how TVI Express is actually "touching lives"...

TVIExpressdollar.com author Rudy Phan's fundamental mistakes

Well, it's time to explain once and for all the problem with bogus math.

Rudy's problem is that he had NOT ACCOUNTED FOR COST OF TRIPS AT ALL.

His entire argument rested upon his mathematical "proof" that we critics somehow had gotten it wrong, that the rate of cycling out is not 1/225, but 1/8, and thus TVI Express is sustainable.

His main problem in his math is he neglected to account for the cost of the trips. According to Rudy's view, they don't exist. They cost TVI Express NOTHING. This threw his income / expense calculations completely off, which is how he came up with "TVI Express can pay up to 92% of every dollar back". I guess if he counts the trips as "payback" he *may* get away with that one...

His second problem is he only counted ONE board, but you have to count both.

Then he cites the 72% figure on TVI Express website as if it's gospel. Again, the 72% figure is unproven, has no figures backing it, so it is not fact, but dogma.

Although he is somewhat correct in pointing out a mistake... Once a pyramid is established, it takes 8 new members to "cycle out" the top member. However, this only serves to prove that TVI Express cannot function as it simply CANNOT take in enough money based on the way it is organized.

Let us take Rudy Phan's model and try to process it properly, by estimating the trip cost at $200 USD (for a 7-day 6-night vacation and one-way airfare for 2? That's too cheap even in India! But let us assume that they can do it somehow...) And at the very beginning...

* Let's say the traveler board has 7 members so far, and there is no express board...
Income = 7 * 250 = 1750
Expenses = 7 * 200 = 1400
Net = 350

* Now 8 new members join
Income = 8 * 250 = 2000
Expenses = 8 * 200 = 1600
Net = 350 + 400 = 750

* The top guy is cycled off, and board splits in 2, 1 guy in express board
Income = 0
Expenses = 250  (delayed loss of income of 250 onto next step, the eVoucher)
Net = 500

* 16 new members join
Income = 16 * 250 = 4000 - 250 = 3750 (delayed loss of income from previous step, redemption of eVoucher)
Expenses = 16 * 200 = 3200
Net = 500+ 500 = 1000

* Two top guys cycled off, four boards, 3 guys now in express board
Income = 0
Expenses=2x250 = 500 (and delayed loss of $500)
Net = 500

* 32 new members join up
Income = 32 * 250 = 8000 - 500 = 7500
Expenses = 32 * 200 = 6400
Net = 500+1100 = 1600

* 4 people cycle out (total of 7 in Express board)
Income = 0
Expenses = 4*250 = 1000 (and delayed loss of 1000)
Net = 1600 - 1000 = 600

* 64 people join up so someone can make their $10000
Income = 64 * 250 = 16000- 1000 = 15000
Expenses = 64 * 200 =  12800
Net = 600 + 2200 = 2800

* 8 people cycle out (now 15 in express board)
Income = 0
Expeses = 8 * 250 = 2000 (and delayed loss of 2000)
Net = 2800 - 2000 = 800

* Express board cycle out
Income 0
Expenses = 10000
Net =800-10000= -9200    NEGATIVE 9200

Thus, TVI Express can ONLY CONTINUE TO RUN if it does NOT redeem all the trips it promised, and/or NOT pay out all the bonuses it promised. It simply does NOT have enough income to fulfill its promises. It can redeem stuff for SOME of its members, but eventually it will collapse. It tried to stave off the collapse by instituting half-sizing the trips and charge $150 for "taxes and processing fees" to redeem the trips, but "the writing had been on the wall" from the very beginning.

Let us keep playing... What would happen if another 128 people joined the scheme?


*128 new members join up



Income = 128*250 = 32000- 2000 (eVouchers) = 30000
Expenses = 128 * 200 = 25600


Net = -9800 + 30000-25600 = -5400

* 16 people now cycle out of traveler board



Income = 0
Expenses = 16 * 250 = 4000 (delayed loss of 4000 next cycle)
Net = -9400




* Now 2 more will get their $10000, yes?
Income = 0
Expenses = 20000


Net = -29400

As you can see the number only gets worse as you continue playing. And that's just the first few "big payouts". Keep in mind that the so-called "re-entry" into the express board only makes things worse, since there is no additional income to fuel the additional $10000 payouts.



So how did TVI Express got this far?

1) It has made it as difficult as possible to redeem the eWallet. It does NOT pay in cash, but rather, eWallet, which cannot be spent. Convert that into ATM card? Impossible. Convert that into bank balance? Must be "applied" then "approved". The more eWallet money they hold, the less real money they pay out.





2) It has made it as difficult as possible to redeem the trip. They keep blaming one upgrade after another, then unannounced outages, then started charging $150 for "taxes and processing fees", then half-size the trips. The less trips they allow to be redeemed, the more money they keep in their pockets.



3) The vast amount of lies both it and its distributors have told, esp. Tarun Trikha, who quietly disappeared from the "advisory board" of TVI Express recently. In fact, the entire advisory board is likely a sham. Why? TVI Express has been ILLEGAL in China since June or July 2009. Yet advisory board still have two Chinese members on it, even today. Why have advisory board members in a country where TVI Express is ILLEGAL? It's only to keep up appearances.

Very likely there is only one REAL member of advisory board: Tarun Trikha, who's also owner/CEO/puppetmaster. Everybody else are just accomplices.

TVI Express and 5 stages of loss

Do you know the 5-stages of grief / loss? From Wikipedia:

1. Denial – "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."
   Denial is usually only a temporary defense for the individual. This feeling is generally replaced with heightened awareness of positions and individuals that will be left behind after death.
2. Anger – "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; "Who is to blame?"
   Once in the second stage, the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue. Because of anger, the person is very difficult to care for due to misplaced feelings of rage and envy. Any individual that symbolizes life or energy is subject to projected resentment and jealousy.
3. Bargaining – "Just let me live to see my children graduate."; "I'll do anything for a few more years."; "I will give my life savings if..."
   The third stage involves the hope that the individual can somehow postpone or delay death. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made with a higher power in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. Psychologically, the individual is saying, "I understand I will die, but if I could just have more time..."
4. Depression – "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die... What's the point?"; "I miss my loved one, why go on?"
   During the fourth stage, the dying person begins to understand the certainty of death. Because of this, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time crying and grieving. This process allows the dying person to disconnect oneself from things of love and affection. It is not recommended to attempt to cheer up an individual who is in this stage. It is an important time for grieving that must be processed.
5. Acceptance – "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."
   In this last stage, the individual begins to come to terms with his mortality or that of his loved one.

So how does this apply to TVI Express?


Denial -- TVI Express is not a scam. You must be mistaken. You don't understand us.

Anger -- You are a moron! You are a part of conspiracy! You are a liar!


Bargaining -- It's NOT really a scam if the losses are so minor, people didn't really lose money...



Depression -- What am I going to do without TVI Express? I must join another MLM...

Acceptance -- Yes, TVI Express is a scam. You were right. I understand now. 

New Type of TVI Express Supporter identified: Let-them-be-conned

Just in the past few days I got two comments left on my TVI Express blog posts and such that alerted me to a new type of TVI Express supporters.



Previously I had identified three types (and 3 variants) of TVI Express supporters: debater, denier, and evangelical.

This fourth type is distinct from those three, as they possess a new mindset... They claim that all the TVI Express members are willing victims, thus there is really no reason or purpose to warn them out of TVI Express.



For example, a person from South Africa left the following comment:

"So you see, booooing everyone who has joined TVI or any other network and even calling them names is not going to stop them from doing such because they have CHOSEN to be distributors of TVI or any other network. It's not our job to judge. No one judges how you make your money, so why judge others? Afterall, it's their CHOICE and they will answer accordingly."

 And a person from Bangledesh left the following comment:

Bro I dont know who you are and what you're problem is.. you show us that tvi lied, but you havent showed us anyone who lost their money, so your evidence doesnt quit back you up with your arguement...

So in other words, they are basically saying that even if it's a scam, it is no big deal. 



I guess I can lump them into the "deniers", but that doesn't sound quite right.  

TVIexpressdollar.com author Rudy Phan writes back

That I had somehow "misunderstood" him. He wrote:

"8 is a BASIC NUMBER to calculate the REAL BOARD, new members fill the 8 nodes in level 1 of Traveller Board. While 7 old members, who was in level 2, 3 and 4, the money had been counted in the PARENT BOARD. So, if the money had been counted in the PARENT BOARD, then when it was split off, please DO NOT CALCULATED it again. We talk about business, we talk about money. Calculate the MONEY, NOT THE “NODES”. "

Well, considering we are kinda talking apples and oranges here...

I think what he's trying to say is that somehow we do NOT have to count the first 7 people/nodes when the pyramid "splits". Why? No idea. Did not give a reason, just "do not calculate it again".




I think I'll wait until he explains WHY the first 7 people don't need to be counted before I render a decision.



In the meanwhile, I'll call your attention to this classic puzzle... Trust me, it's related:

3 men go to a hotel and explain to the cashier that they would like to share one room, and need the cheapest room because they do not have much money.

The clerk provides them with a room for $30, but realized after they went to their room that the room fee is only $25, so the clerk sent the bellhop up to the room to give the men their money.

Since it was hard to give exact change, the bellhop asked if it was okay if he gave each of them $1 back and kept $2 for the tip.  The men agreed.

Each man initiall paid $10, but got $1 back so they actually paid only $9.

$9 x 3 = $27 plus the $2 for the tip equals $29.

Where did the other dollar go?

TVIExpressDollar.com author Rudy Phan claims 15 = 8

Rudy Phan, author of Tviexpressdollar.com, claims my math in my previous blog entry is wrong. Why?

You said that "the big payout of $10000 chance is 1 in 225". This is wrong. Do you know the difference between the FIRST BOARD (when TVI Express established) and the REAL BOARD that operate now? The basic number to calculate for the REAL BOARD is NOT 15, BUT 8. From the wrong basic number, your mathematical calculate in totally WRONG.

Let's see... Did he just claim that the "board" size is actually 8, not 15? Yes, I believe he just did.


But what does TVI Express say about it?



http://www.tviexpress.com/pop-up/images//travellerboard1-large.jpg

http://www.tviexpress.com/pop-up/images//expressboard1-large.jpg

So folks, these are from the OFFICIAL TVI Express website. It is the current version. There's no arguing with that, is there? Do we agree? Good.

You can count yes? How many "nodes" are there in each picture? I count 8 level 1, 4 level 2, 2 level 3, and 1 level 4. That's 15 nodes, in both pictures.



Yet Rudy claims there are only 8.

Or is Rudy claiming there is a THIRD board beyond the traveller board and express board, which he called "the REAL BOARD"? But there was no such board mentioned on TVI Express webpage. 

When you cycle out of the Traveller board, you get a position at Level 1 of the Express board. You earn a mega bonus of $ 10,000 credited to the Online Wallet instantly as soon as you cycle out of the Express Board. And that’s not all, you get a re-entry into the Express board for you to make another $ 10,000 in a revolving fashion.
-- http://www.tviexpress.com/pop-up/revolving.php

No mention of any other board, or a "real board" as Rudy called it. 

Who's not dealing with reality?

Mathematical proof that TVI Express is a Scam: TVI Express Shills Using Funny Math in Indonesia

First, I have to admit, I do NOT read Indonesian, so I am going through the website in question using Google Translate. However, it is clear that this member is spreading BULLSHIT all over the place, by claiming 3 is somehow LESS than 1, or something of the sort.



The website in question is tviexpressdollar.com, whose owner had posted various "rebuttals" on the Indonesian web forum kaskus.us against critics of TVI Express. Here's his primary rebuttal:



http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&sl=id&u=http://www.tviexpressdollar.com/the-truth-behind-tvi-express-membongkar-kebohongan-kaskuser-terhadap-tvi-express-bagian-pertama/&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2522TVI%2BExpress%2522%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DN%26rlz%3D1B3GGLL_enUS400US400%26tbs%3Dqdr:d%26prmd%3Dvlfd&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&usg=ALkJrhja4ZweBxm3GsEINE6vaEVaYtn9Xw

The gist of this webpage is basically as follows: Some folks on kaskus.us forum claim TVI Express is a scam and proved it mathematically that it cannot be sustainable. TVIExpressDollar will prove that TVI Express is sustainable mathematically, thus defeating the scam argument.







This is a strawman argument at best. A scam can be sustainable mathematically. Just because it can be sustained mathematically (i.e. does NOT pay out more than it takes in) does NOT prove it is not a scam.
While the original charge of being mathematically unsustainabe is one way to prove a scam, defeating that ONE argument proves just that ONE argument is flawed.



However, there is a very fundamental way of analyzing the input / output idea. In any business, for a business to be sustainable, income must be greater than expenses. What was left is "profit". To do this, you calculate the maximum income, vs. maximum expenses, and make sure the numbers are "profitable", to the order of say, a reasonable margin of 25%, before deducting for clerical expenses (alleged office, alleged employees, phones, website hosting, programmers, and so on, plus executive team salaries).  That should leave a "healthy" profit. This is an assumption, but I trust, a reasonable one.



So what are the sources of TVI Express INCOME? So far I only see two completely reliable sources: the $250 membership fee, and the recently added $150 "processing fee and taxes", that is "per member". We will have to make another assumption here... As the 150 was added only at June 2010, we will assume average member paid $300 (remember, the earlier ones did NOT pay the $150, I'm just estimating, and I believe I am generous), and we will assume there is a million members. It is a nice round number.



So the income, so far, of TVI Express, is estimated to be 300 million. It can go up to $400 million, but I believe $300 is a more reasonable number.

What about expenses? That is a bit more difficult to calculate, due to the way the matrix boards work. The first time through, the big payout of $10000 chance is 1 in 225, or less than 0.4%. However, the trick here is you are cycled back into the express board. Still, keep in mind that it still takes every member in the express board 14 people from the traveler board to push them "up", so the "re-entry" does not actually affect the calculations.



I believe we can agree that TVI Express has FOUR expenses: big board payout, small board payout, the trips, and the clerical / facility expenses. The last one we've estimated earlier to be a reasonable 5-10% range, but it could go higher. We'll estimate the ones we know first.

Big board payout is 1 million members divided by 225 * $10000 = 44,444,444



Small board payout is 1 million members divided by 15 * $500 = 33,333,333

The trips is going to be more complicated. How much is the 7-day 6-night trip for two worth? This gets complicated until you look up similar trips offered by other companies... And  the answer is... about $400. (Go ahead, price it yourself using whatever booking engine you prefer, even TVI Express's backoffice, which is just Travelocity)



1000000 members * 400 = $400 million.


Total expenditure (excluding housekeeping, such as salary, taxes, office, etc.) is in excess of 477 million.

As we have just estimated that TVI Express income with 1 million members is about $300 million, clearly the expenses have outstripped income... By over 50%.



Ah, but you ask, could I have overestimated the trip costs? It is certain possible. Let's assume 25% discount... $300 million. That's still expenses of $378 million (rounded up). NOT ENOUGH. 

I am sure the critics of this math exercise can continue to tweak the variables until they claim they *have* reached an equilibrium, where income balance expenses, but the numbers will NOT be realistic. Remember, we have yet to account for salary, office, and other expenses, or even a PROFIT for the company. 

The only way TVI Express can continue to operate is by cheating the joiners out of those trips, which is their MAJOR source of expense. They have done so throughout their company history, by making the process as difficult as possible, always blaming the problem on one delay of upgrade vs. another, and finally they decided to add the $150 "processing fees and taxes" to see if they can just pull even. 



Even TVI Express announcements only admit to "thousands" having enjoyed the trips, and they have NEVER published verifiable numbers on how many people have enjoyed those trips.

What if they only gave trips to 50% of the people who joined? Expenses falls to 150 + 78 = 228 million, now they are profitable, assuming income of 300 million. Not very much so, as there's still salary and so on, but you can see that the MORE trips they withhold, the more money they make.



So there you go. Mathematical proof that TVI Express is a scam... its business model only loses money. It relies on deception, and NOT giving out what it promised.

And everybody who claims otherwise is using funny math.

Bank of Namibia issues FORMAL WARNING against TVI Express Scam

Original URL: http://www.republikein.com.na/die-mark/bon-warns-public.115812.php

The Bank of Namibia has become aware of two networks/schemes known as Holidays and Cash (H&C) and TVI Express that are operating in Namibia in violation of the law.

The activities of the above resemble those of selling and marketing pyramid schemes as defined in section 1 of the Banking Institutions Act, (Act No. 2 of 1998) in terms of receiving funds from the public.

In a statement issued in Windhoek on Friday, the Bank of Namibia warns the public about the dangers of investing or participating in these particular schemes and other schemes of a similar nature.

“Furthermore, the Bank of Namibia would also like to caution all promoters of H&C and TVI Express, including persons who attempt to recruit others, either by word-of-mouth or via spamming email messages to join these schemes, anywhere in Namibia, to stop such practices immediately.
“After the Bank of Namibia scrutinised the business models of both H&C and TVI Express against the relevant provisions of the Act, the Bank of Namibia concluded that the business operations of the two above-noted schemes place substantial emphasis on recruitment of participants to these schemes. In this respect, the schemes offer lucrative incentives to the participants, calculated primarily on the basis of the number of participants or members they recruited into the schemes. It is evident that these recruitment-based incentives serve as a bait to attract potential participants into joining the schemes, with the prospect of making easy money by recruiting others.

“Furthermore in the whole, selling of purported products or services is a small component of the business models in the two schemes and therefore designed to defraud members of the public.

“Given the above, these business models contravene the provisions of the Act when subjected to the definition of ‘receiving funds from the public’ and are therefore considered illegal. The Bank of Namibia therefore appeals to each and every law-abiding citizen of this country to refrain from participating in any activities of H&C and TVI Express,” says Ndangi Katoma, head of corporate communication of the Bank of Namibia.

The Bank of Namibia further requests the public to report such activities to the bank through the Banking Supervision Department at 283 5040 or email: romeo.nel@bon.com.na or Corporate Communications Division. 

More TVI Express members in China arrested for FRAUD

Found the following article http://blog.ce.cn/html/74/426474-670373.html

2010英国TVI旅游快车 专骗老人

2010 UK TVI Express Cheats Elderly

2010-10-15 14:32:27

来源：《楚天金报》文/高秉  source: Chu-Tien Jin News  / Gau Bing
编辑:皓景旅行网  （崔皓景）editor: Hao Jing Travel Network (Cui Haojing)

楚天金报宜昌西陵公安分局昨日通报，打掉一个打着“英国TVI旅游快车公司”幌子，进行非法网络传销活动的犯罪团伙，涉嫌组织领导非法网络传销的刘某已被检方批准逮捕。

Chu-Tien Jin New Yichang Xiling Public Security Bureau yesterday reported that they have destroyed a group flying the banner of "UK TVI Express" pretext, conduct illegal pyramid scheme selling activitiesm, criminal gang, the suspected group leader of this illegal pyramid scheme, Ms. Liu, has been issued a warrant for his arrest. 

去年10月23日，西陵公安分局接一市民报案称，其受人邀约参加了“英国TVI旅游快车”电子商务活动，可缴纳了相关费用却得不到允诺的服务，遂疑被 骗，要求警方查处。该局经侦中队意识到其中隐藏着重要的网络传销线索，遂制定出“循序渐进、扎实取证、擒贼擒王”的侦查方案。

Last year (2009), 23-October, Xiling Public Security Bureau received a citizen report that he was invited to join a "TVI Express" e-commerce seminar, paid various joining fees, but did not received promised benefits, and believe he was defrauded, and wish police invetigation. The local Bureau, after investigation, realized in this complaint is a serious clue leading to a major pyramid scheme, thus formulated a plan: follow the link, gather the evidence, grab the leader. 

今年8月26日，西陵警方将涉嫌组织、领导“英国TVI旅游快车”所谓新型电子商务活动的犯罪嫌疑人刘某抓获，刘某对其非法传销行为供认不讳。近日，经宜昌市西陵区人民检察院批准，刘某被逮捕。

This year (2010) 26-AUGUST, Xiling Police detained the suspected organizer and leader of this so-called new e-commerce opportunity  "TVI Express", Ms. Liu. Ms. Liu quickly confessed to running a pyramid scheme, holding nothing back. Recently, through prosecutor's office of Yichung City, Xiling Region, arrest warrant was issued for Ms. Liu and she had been taken into custody.

经查，从去年4月起，刘某(化名：刘璐，女，39岁，汉族，宜昌人)通过林某(男，27岁，浙江人，现在逃)介绍，刘某出资1897元加入了“英国 TVI旅游快车公司”的网络传销组织。

According to investigation, since April 2009, Ms. Liu (alias: Lu Liu, female, 39 years old, ethnic Han, citizen of Yichan), through Mr. Lin (male, 27 yeas old, citizen of Zhejiang, fugitive) as a sponsor, paid 1897 (RMB) and joined TVI Express pyramid scheme organization.

随后，刘某在宜昌市华强大厦603号等地狂拉人头，以1897元购买旅游卡注册成“英国TVI旅游快车”会员后，可 免费入住国内线路五星级宾馆七天六夜和享受全球旅游打折优惠，推荐、发展下线可获取500元美金返还和最高奖金15000元美金奖作饵，使自己在两个月内从一般会员发展成金卡会员，累计发展下线会员达658个，非法获利近6万余元。

Later, Ms. Liu was heavily promoting the pyramid scheme in Yichan City Huachiang Building #603, promising that just pay $1897 (RMB) for travel card (membership) and register to become member of "TVI Express', can get free accommodation in domestic 5-star hotels for 7-day 6-night and enjoy global travel discount benefits. If you sponsor and develop downlines you can earn 500 and up to 15000 USD as bait, quickly gotten herself in just over two months up to "gold level" associate, with 658 downlines, with illegal profit of over 6 million RMB.

据警方介绍，此案涉及人员多、涉案金额大，受害人多为60岁以上的老人，其中，很多受害者在刘某等人的蛊惑下，被骗走毕生积蓄，系“宜昌网络传销第一案”。

Based on police information, this case has huge amount of victims and huge amount of money involved. Most victims are elderly, over 60. Many victims, entranced by Ms. Liu's scam, were swindled out of their life savings, and is currently the most devastating pyramid scheme thus far in Yichan city. 

目前，警方对此案正在审理中。

Currently police is still processing the case. 

Tarun Trikha is no longer on TVI Express Advisory Board

Go to TVI Express link and you'll see something surprising: Tarun Trikha's name is no longer on the list of advisory board members.


Now that he's off advisory board, he is definitely NOT eligible to speak for TVI Express in ANY MANNER.

Wonder when this this happen? Was it BEFORE or after Kaspi and Jackson and Traurig posted their "conference call with Owner and CEO Tarun Trikha" on their website increasemymonthlyincome.com?

Why is there still two advisory board members from China? TVI Express has been illegal in China for over a year now. Members arrested, convicted and sentenced to jail.